New Delhi: The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have surprised everyone, with the NDA winning 294 seats and the opposition party taking a big lead by winning 233 seats. Although the NDA government and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term are almost certain, it will be a difficult start for the incumbent government.
NDA government this time: According to data on the Election Commission website, the BJP has won 240 seats, which is 30 seats short of a majority and 63 seats less than its number of seats in the 2019 elections. The final figure means that the BJP will be heavily dependent on its NDA allies to form the government.
Muslim-dominated areas ditch BJP: Muslim voters seem to be moving away from the BJP, according to data released by the Election Commission. However, this did not benefit the Congress. In 2019, out of 103 Muslim-majority seats, the BJP won 45, Congress 11, and others 47. However, this time the BJP won 35 seats, Congress 12, and others 55 seats.
No Congress-mukt Bharat: BJP’s goal of freeing India from the Congress now seems even further away. The Congress has won big in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Telangana, buoyed by a seat-sharing arrangement with its India Bloc members.
Rahul’s resurgence and impact of Bharat Jodo Yatra: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s South-North Bharat Jodo Yatra followed by the East-West Nyay Yatra has had a big positive impact on the party. During a press conference, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge highlighted how Rahul’s visits convinced lakhs of voters to introspect and shun the BJP and the “politics of hate”. Rahul, contesting from Wayanad in Kerala and Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh, won both seats with big margins.
BSP loses ground gained in 2019, vote share drops sharply: As per the election results, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has failed to open its account in Uttar Pradesh. In 2019, BSP had won 10 seats, up from 0 in 2014.
No visible impact of Ram temple: The consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya was considered by experts to be a decisive factor for the BJP in UP and beyond. However, it seems that this strategy did not work at all for the saffron party. In Faizabad – the Lok Sabha seat under which Ayodhya falls, Samajwadi Party’s Awadhesh Prasad defeated BJP candidate Lallu Singh by a margin of over 54,000 votes.
BJP makes gains in Odisha; major setback for BJD: This time BJD’s vote share was 37.53%, about 5.3 percentage points less than what it secured in 2019. Meanwhile, BJP’s vote share has increased from 38.4% in 2019 to 45.34% in 2024. BJP made major strides in Odisha, where it won 20 of the 21 seats.
Development vs Freebies: Freebies may be necessary but not sufficient to win elections. Telangana under KCR was a showcase state of the freebies model. It helped him win 2 consecutive elections. However, the freebie-based model reached its culmination in the third assembly election. KCR could not win Telangana for the third time despite all the freebies.
The upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana will be fierce: The big twist in the Lok Sabha results now points to a heated battle in the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana. The BJP government in Haryana is already facing the anger of disgruntled farmers; and the JJP, which has 10 assembly seats, has distanced itself from the alliance. With the Congress now in a strong position, the elections to be held in October this year will be a tough fight for the BJP.
